Adam Wang ‘23

On August 13th, under the accord, which U.S. President Donald Trump helped broker, Israel agreed to suspend its planned annexation of areas of the occupied West Bank. The agreement makes the UAE only the third Arab country to currently have diplomatic relations with the Jewish nation after Egypt and Jordan recognized Israel’s right to exist decades ago, and it unites Israel with a powerful Persian Gulf ally of Washington that shares the view of Iran as a common enemy. 

Why Israel and UAB decides to reach a normalization deal

1. Donald Trump’s Reelection 

Before this year, Trump had a really high chance of winning reelections because of his economic achievements: the US Unemployment rate fell to a 50-year low, and the Nasdaq and S&P 500 indices reached highs since the 2008 economic crisis. However, this worldwide health crisis, COVID-19, has changed everything. The US economy was inflicted heavily, as was Trump’s approval rate. He needs to make achievements in other promised areas to win his reelection war. Trump made a Middle East peace deal a pillar of his foreign policy early in his administration, and until Thursday there was little evidence of any progress toward that goal. This agreement also serves as a major foreign policy victory for Trump just months before Election Day at a time when polls show him at a disadvantage against his Democratic opponent Joe Biden, who has peddled his decades of foreign policy experience in the Senate and as vice president.

2. Pressure from their common enemy Iran 

The quiet ties developed over years of pragmatic cooperation between Israeli and Emirati officials around the threats posed by Tehran helped to overcome one of the most stubborn diplomatic schisms. Israel is particularly concerned about suspected Iranian efforts to develop nuclear weapons, which Tehran denies. Iran is also involved in proxy wars from Syria to Yemen, where the UAE has been a leading member of the Saudi-led coalition opposing Iran-aligned forces there.

Potential influences
1. Abandonment of Palestine 

The agreement sidelines the Palestinians, whose claim to the land where Israel was established in 1948 underlies the Arab-Israeli conflict of the decades since. That such a potentially consequential deal could be reached without the involvement of the Palestinians raised long-standing fears that Arab states of the Persian Gulf were ready to work toward better business and political relations with Israel without gaining meaningful concessions. In other words, the Arabic world is ready to abandon Palestinians for a greater and more stable relationship with Israel. Also, Israel​i Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that this will only be a temporary postponement of their annexation plan, and it is not removed from the table. Therefore, this ongoing conquest of the West Bank will probably not stop in the future. 

2. Economic boost for both countries involved

Dubai, which has the most diversified economy in the region, saw its GDP contract 3.5 percent in the first quarter following two years of modest growth.  Its Emirates airline, the leader in Middle East aviation, was forced to downsize and cut thousands of jobs. After years of growth, the Israeli economy is facing a "severe recession", with GDP set to fall by 6.2 percent this year, according to official projections, while unemployment has jumped from 3.4 percent in February to 23.5 percent in May. Normalization could boost recovery as Israel is a hungry customer for UAE’s oil.

For Israel, on Sunday, its Channel 12 television reported that the economy ministry had estimated exports to the UAE could reach between $300 million and $500 million a year
UAE investments in Israel were predicted to amount to up to $350 million a year. The sectors expected to gain the most were cyber industries, medical equipment, financial technology and communications, the report said.