Arnav Chinchankar ‘26

The 2024 United States Senate election in New Jersey garnered national attention after Senator Bob Menendez (D-NJ) was indicted for aiding the government of Egypt and interfering with a criminal prosecution in exchange for gold bars and cash. Menendez chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, but was forced to relinquish the role after his arrest. This case is not the first scandal Menendez has been involved in; the Senator was indicted in 2015 for failing to report gifts from a political donor. While Menendez decided against running for the Democratic nomination in the upcoming primary, he has not ruled out an independent bid in November.

Over the last few months, two new contenders emerged to replace him: Representative Andy Kim (NJ-03) and New Jersey First Lady Tammy Murphy. Kim, the first Democratic member of Congress of Korean descent, arrived at the Capitol after narrowly flipping a Republican district. Since then, Kim has gained a reputation for his morals–a photo of the Rhodes Scholar cleaning up the Capitol Building following the January 6 attack went viral.

Less than a week after Kim launched his campaign, Murphy announced hers. The Virginia native and former Goldman Sachs analyst has founded a think tank and engaged in nonprofit work. She has played a central role in Governor Phil Murphy’s administration through her maternal health advocacy. However, Murphy received backlash for voting as a Republican until 2014 and not holding any prior elected office.

The strongest challenges to Murphy’s campaign centered on her husband’s influence on the “party line,” which represents a favorable position on the ballot. Candidates on the line are usually listed in the first column, while other candidates are several columns away–historically decreasing their chances decreasing their chances of success. The candidates that are endorsed by the county’s Democratic Party organizations are grouped into the party line.

Soon after Murphy launched her campaign, she received a flurry of endorsements from Democratic leaders, suggesting that she would be placed on the line in most counties. Murphy won county conventions in the counties of Bergen, Essex, Union, Passaic, and Middlesex, granting her a sizable advantage. In February, Kim filed a federal lawsuit against the county-line system, suggesting all candidates for the same position be grouped together.

In an abrupt move, Murphy recently announced that she would suspend her campaign to avoid a divisive Democratic primary, leading the way for an almost-guaranteed Kim victory. While initial polls favored Murphy, Kim gained ground through grassroots organizing and opposition to the county-line. Even though Kim would now be placed on the line, he continues to challenge the system of favorable ballot positioning through legal efforts. Regardless, barring any significant disruptions, Kim appears to have a safe path to Senator.