Finland in Talks to Join NATO: The Unintended Consequences of Putin’s Actions
Catharine Paik ‘25
Based on polling done last month, it is estimated that up to 68% of Finnish people are now in favor of joining the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO). While Finland has long been recognized as having strong relations with the group through its Enhanced Opportunity Partner status, the majority of Finns still opposed becoming an actual NATO member.
However, as a result of Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, this is changing. Finland and its neighbor Sweden are both thinking about submitting applications to join NATO, with some news sources estimating as early as May or June. For both countries, especially Finland, which shares its 830-mile eastern border with Russia, this decision requires serious consideration.
Despite two wars with the Soviet Union between 1939 and 1944, Finland has maintained more or less friendly relations with Russia in the post-war era. In 1948, it established the Agreement of Friendship, Cooperation, and Mutual Assistance with the USSR, agreeing not to join either an alliance in opposition to the Soviets or the Warsaw Pact. Since the Cold War, Finnish leaders have stood firm in their long-held position of neutrality in terms of West-Russian tensions.
While Finland did join the EU in 1995, thus more closely aligning itself with the West, it has kept up an economically beneficial relationship with Russia. For example, in 2019, Russia was among Finland’s top five partners in terms of both imports and exports; Russia took up a 5.5% and 13.5% partner share in Finland’s exports and imports respectively. Additionally, the construction of the Hanhikivi Nuclear Power Plant was expected to begin in 2023 in Finland with Russian-owned nuclear energy company Rosatom.
But Putin’s recent actions have seriously undermined Europe’s collective sense of safety and security. The invasion of Ukraine and the Kremlin’s conduct while doing so have demonstrated a disregard for national borders, sovereignty, and human rights.
Finland and Sweden are both members of the EU and Article 42.7 of the organization's Lisbon Treaty declares that “if a Member State is the victim of armed aggression…the other Member States shall have…an obligation of aid and assistance by all means in their power.” But the vagueness of promising “aid and assistance” is much less certain than the mutual defense guaranteed by membership in NATO through Article 5 of the treaty which states that “an armed attack against one or more of them…shall be considered an attack against them all.”
Fellow NATO members would have no choice but to come to Finland’s defense should Russia ever attempt anything similar to what is happening now. In such a case, the response of NATO would be drastically different from the situation in Ukraine, in which the non-member state has been left to fight largely on its own.
Having said that, it is also possible that in trying to strengthen its national security, Finland would put itself and possibly the rest of the world in further danger by triggering increased aggression from Russia. In February, a spokesperson for Russia’s foreign ministry claimed that there would be “military and political consequences” if Sweden and Finland joined NATO, suggesting either direct retaliation from Russia towards the two countries or others in the area as a way to “rebalance the situation.” More recently, Russia warned of nuclear escalation in the Baltic region as a response to growing NATO membership. And, of course, many have cited stopping Ukraine’s growing closeness to NATO as the central reason for Russia’s invasion in the first place.
Despite all the threats listed above, it seems highly unlikely that Putin would be able to truly retaliate against Finland’s and Sweden’s entry into NATO as he continues to engage with Ukraine. The world is now even warier of Russian hostilities. Countries across Europe have dramatically increased their defense spending, most notably Germany whose role in WWII has led them to resist the build-up of their military. If Russia hints at any aggression further than Ukraine, it won’t matter which countries are NATO members or not. The world, primarily NATO, will have no choice but to act, which may include a military response.
As a result of Russia’s actions, the global community is being pushed to more clearly define their alliances, shifting the balance of international power dynamics. Many have noted the irony: in an overly-antagonistic attempt to counter the presence of the West and NATO in Eastern Europe, Putin has ensured that their influence will spread while further isolating him and his country from the rest of the world militarily, economically, and politically. What was supposed to be a quick victory displaying Russian strength has only weakened Putin and brought unnecessary death, destruction, and tragedy to the Ukrainian people.
Sources:
https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryProfile/en/Country/FIN/Year/LTST/Summarytext
https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natolive/official_texts_17120.htm
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-61066503
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/29/business/economy/european-union-military-spending.html