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As the Economy Grows, the Middle Class Shrinks

By: Alex Curran The world is entering upon its 10th year of economic growth, the US is continuing its decade-long bull market, and the middle class is disappearing. Real, disposable incomes for the middle class have not increased since the middle of the last decade, while incomes for the top 10% are reaching new highs (Arends “Why the middle class is shrinking”). In the previous decade, from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s, median incomes rose by 17% in wealthier countries. So if the economy is expanding, why is the middle class shrinking? The “middle class” counts as people earning between 75% and 200% of the median income (Why the middle class is shrinking”). About 70% of baby boomers were middle-class by their 20s, while today, only 20% of millennials have reached middle-class status. Moreover, downward mobility, or the risk of losing middle-class lifestyles and ending up poor, is a rising concern. According to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), the increasing costs of health care, housing, and education are hitting the middle classes particularly hard (“Why the middle class is shrinking”). Furthermore, the loss of economic power has been driven by “dismal” income growth that cannot cover these rapidly rising costs (Sparshott, “The Middle Class is Shrinking”). Additionally, technology and global competition have caused a sharp decrease in the number of middle-class careers available. Middle-skill workers are now more likely to be in the lower-income class than the middle-income due to these factors. This lack of income growth and threats to middle-class jobs have also caused young people to live at home. In the US, the number of young women living at home is at the highest rate on record and men aren’t far behind. American University economist, Gary Kimbrough, predicts that “housing costs combined with cratering economic growth and significantly deteriorated labor market conditions for young adults” have caused this phenomenon (“The Middle Class is Shrinking”). However, there could be good news on the horizon. The shrinking of the American middle class may have come to a standstill. About 52% of American adults lived in middle-class households in 2016, up from 51% in 2011 (“Why the middle class is shrinking”). This may seem like a small percentage, but this recent stability in the percentage of adults living in middle-income households marks a shift from a decades-long downward trend. From 1971 to 2011, the share of adults in the middle class decreased by 10%.  So, could this be the start of the resurgence of the middle class? With the upcoming presidential election and unpredictable economic swings, the fate of the middle class is still in question.  Sources: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-middle-class-is-shrinking-2019-04-12https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2019/04/11/real-time-economics-the-middle-class-is-shrinking/?guid=BL-REB-39390&dsk=yhttps://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shrinking-of-americas-middle-class-has-finally-ground-to-a-halt-2018-09-06