OPEC at Odds with Crude Oil Pricing
By: Mark Brenner ‘19While OPEC has seen its current agreed production cuts exceeded by 44 percent, all is not well in the crude oil space. Lower production has brought economic strain to member countries and is forcing conversations on where oil prices should be headed. Venezuela and Angola have seen unsteady production, often leading to large dips in daily output. Falling oil prices have a direct impact on drilling activity, closing out nearly all rigs in certain regions, including Angola. Consequently, the recent tensions on whether to send oil prices to $70 or $60 have become increasingly important.Drilling activity in Angola was hit hard as oil prices fell in the past few years, and with continued downward pressure on pricing, there appears to be little evidence of recovery. During the 2014/2015 price ease, Saudi Arabia did not cut its production, which certainly did not benefit the situations in Angola and Venezuela. Studies suggest that this will hold steady in the interim, as OPEC nations in the Middle East grow their production capacity while others globally will see the opposite.Shifting to the discussion of creating a policy for oil prices moving forward, Saudi Arabia and Iran are at odds, given their differing needs politically. Moving into OPEC’s June meeting, output driven prices will likely be at the top of the agenda. OPEC has seen a recent divide into two sides of the $60 vs. $70 price debate. Iran requires just over $57 a barrel to satisfy its national budget, while Saudi Arabia’s record spending commands $70 a barrel.Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh asserted that Iran wishes to keep good relations with Saudi Arabia, which shows us that $70 a barrel may not be out of the question. OPEC continues its efforts to manage shale production, which Zanganeh cites as its only means of managing the crude oil market. Sourceshttps://www.wsj.com/articles/opec-divided-on-the-right-price-for-oil-1520769600 https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-02-19/once-opec-s-oil-price-dove-saudi-arabia-takes-a-harder-line http://www.freemalaysiatoday.com/category/business/2018/03/11/how-opec-sacrificed-2-members-for-the-greater-good/ https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-03-11/opec-sacrificed-venezuela-angola-for-greater-good