By Christopher Specht ‘19
International tension regarding Syria is now at an all-time high. The international community is battling the growing influence of the Islamic State in the region and trying to shape the future of Syria. Geopolitical rivalries and disagreements about keeping Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, however, have resulted in a schism. On one side are Assad’s supporters: Russia, Iran and Iraq; on the other, the United States and other NATO countries wishing to remove Assad from power by backing moderate rebel groups.Tensions spiked Friday after an unmarked drone was shot down in the Kilis province by Turkish fighter jets patrolling the Syrian border. The aircraft failed to leave Turkish airspace despite three warning transmissions from the Turkish military. The Turkish military had not disclosed which country was responsible for the drone, but leaked photographs of the drone proving that it was a Russian Orlan 10 unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). This means that the drone likely belonged to either Russia or Syria. The Russian Defense Ministry has since denied involvement, claiming that at the time all of its drones were functioning normally and had returned to a Syrian base after completing their missions. In all likelihood, the drone was an attempt by either Russia or Syria to test Turkish resolve to protect its airspace. According to Can Kasapoglu of the Centre for Economic and Foreign Policy Studies, “This is a strategic effort, under Russian cover, to render Turkey’s rules of engagement practically meaningless; and the tactical purpose is to test Turkey’s capacity and response time.” This is not the first breach by Russian aircraft in Turkey’s airspace; since Russian airstrikes began, NATO has twice accused Russia of entering Turkish airspace. Unmarked planes and surface-to-air missiles have also targeted Turkish fighter planes flying along the border.This event on its own will likely not cause a major escalation of tension. As of this article’s publication, no country has yet claimed responsibility for the drone. If Russia and Syria continue to test Turkey’s rules of engagement and willingness to defend its airspace, however, a Russian jet could be shot down. This would likely spark a proxy war between NATO and Russia, with each backing competing groups in Syria. Russia is also likely preparing air cover for operations against the rebels seeking to undermine Assad’s government. It is uncertain what Syria’s government will look like in the future, but with tensions between Russia and NATO rising, it seems this question will be at the center of the geopolitical stage.Sources:http://www.wsj.com/articles/turkish-military-downs-unidentified-aircraft-violating-airspace-1444992779http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34551155http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2015/10/turkey-unidentified-aircraft-shot-151016104805046.html