By James Xu '18
Recently, Japan has made several militarizing moves that have alarmed its East Asian neighbors. Prime Minster Abe requested a five billion yen increase in the Japanese military budget and passed a series of laws so that Japanese forces would be allowed to fight abroad for the first time since WWII. China has warned that a militarized Japan could gain too much power. Additionally, 58% of Koreans believe that Japan has reemerged as a military state and officially poses a security threat.It makes sense for China and South Korea to dread a militarized Japan; the Japanese military brings back memories of many lost family members for the elderly. Given this background, it is particularly shocking that the Philippines, another victim of the Japanese military in WWII, openly voiced support for the new Japanese military legislation. Just 70 years ago, the Japanese military slaughtered up to 400,000 innocent Filipino civilians in the Battle of Manila, a brutal crime against humanity that rivaled the Rape of Nanking.Does this mean the Filipino people have a short memory or are more forgiving? Of course not. There can only be one justification - with the United States’ help, Manila and Tokyo are setting down their historic woes to focus on a common challenge - China’s increasing aggressiveness. Both Japan and the Philippines are currently engaged in a territorial dispute with China: Diaoyudao for Japan and the islands of the South China Sea for the Philippines. Both see China’s domination more of a threat to regional interest and economic development than to national security.Although seemingly insignificant, this support can alter international relations and permanent alignment between counties. On the eve of WWI, after Emperor Kaiser Wilhelm began to rapidly construct the German navy, Great Britain recognized the newborn German Empire as its greatest threat and swiftly settled its thousand-year hostility with France by striking an alliance. Similar factors are at play here. Smaller states are allying themselves to deal with the hegemon more effectively and a new partnership has formed between the formerly bitter adversaries. This transformation of international relations underscores the Filipinos’ magnitude of concern: China poses such a huge threat that a massacre that the painful memories from the Battle of Manila seem like a trivial factor in comparison.As we can see, the tension escalation in the region is reminiscent of that on the eve of WWI. Fortunately, a full-scale war seems improbable. With the global hegemon, the U.S., as the mediator, the two sides are likely to resort to military means. More importantly, it is in no one’s best interest to engage in an open conflict. With that being said, a resolution seems improbable because all three countries are rife with unwavering nationalistic spirit. China, Japan, and the Philippines also don’t want its governments to be perceived as weak. Therefore, the current trend will continue: two sides will continue to hold superficial negotiations while China and the Philippines will continue its race of island building (see previous article) and Beijing and Tokyo will continue bicker over the ownership of Diaoyudao.Sources :http://www.wantchinatimes.com/news/content?id=20150928000068&cid=1101http://uk.reuters.com/article/2015/10/02/uk-japan-abe-slogan-idUKKCN0RW0SO20151002http://thediplomat.com/2015/09/japans-improbable-military-resurgence/