By Mike Beveridge '17

By January 1^st, 2020 the world’s largest chocolate makers, Mars Inc. and Barry Callebaut AG, estimate that global demand for chocolate will outpace supply by 1 million metric tons.  Due to surging demand in Asia, climate change, and disease, the global chocolate shortfall is expected to increase by a million tons every decade for the foreseeable future.

Surging Demand

Analysts expect the per capita demand for chocolate in Asia, which historically was one of the lowest, to grow by more than double the global rate over the next four years.  Last year, per capita consumption was roughly 200 grams per person; it has since expanded 4.5%, which is over six times the global average rate of roughly .8%.  With an estimated 3.7 billion people, Asia is expected to be a powerhouse of demand and will be a strong driver of a shortage that could push prices up at least 10% by the end of this year alone.

Environmental Forces

According to the International Center for Tropical Agriculture, temperatures in Ghana and the Ivory Coast—which account for 53% of global cocoa production—will rise 2^oC by 2050. This increase will intensify the dry season and limit the rainfall necessary to maintain production.  Additionally, as a result of climate change, storms will become more erratic and powerful; they will provide more intense rainfall in a much shorter time, causing flooding and disruption of a centuries-old water cycle.  However, the distant threat of drought and unpredictable weather pales in comparison to the damage diseases have inflicted on cocoa crops nationally.

First discovered in a Costa Rican plantation in 1978, a fungal disease called Frosty Pod has decimated cocoa production across South America.  According to

the International Cocoa Organization, Frosty Pod has already wiped out an estimated 30-40% of production.  Another equally devastating fungus, Witch’s Broom, descended upon the Brazilian state of Bahia and brought production down to 130,000 tons from 300,000 in just 10 years.  Fortunately, neither of these diseases has reached Western Africa, but many scientists fear that it is only a matter of time until the fungi arrive.

The price of cocoa has already increased 87% between 2007 and 2014—from $1,465 a ton to $2,736.  As the shortage intensifies, the price of chocolate will only increase.  Scientists have developed a type of cocoa that is disease resistant, but sacrifices taste.  As citizens in a wealthy nation, most Americans will not be drastically affected by the chocolate crisis. However, they may notice that their favorite snacks are costing them a few cents more than they did in the past.

 Sources:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-11-14/to-save-chocolate-scientists-develop-new-breeds-of-cacao.htmlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-07-14/asia-s-chocolate-binge-compounding-global-cocoa-shortage.htmlhttp://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2014/11/15/the-worlds-biggest-chocolate-maker-says-were-running-out-of-chocolate/