Low Crude Oil Prices and the Global Economy
By Alex Mui '17After three months of steady decline, the price per barrel of crude oil rebounded from a low of $79.78 to $83.03. However, even with this brief resurgence, prices remain inordinately low. The two primary factors behind the plummeting price of crude oil is the flood of crude coming from the increase in domestic hydraulic fracturing and a strong American dollar. As the United States continues to increase its output, supply is rocketing past existing demand and is dropping prices to a point that threatens to cripple other oil producing nations who will now be unable to balance their books.The slide in oil prices is actually a boon to the American economy, at least in the short term. The strong American dollar and low oil prices allow consumers to use their income elsewhere – providing a boost to the rest of the economy. However, as oil is sold for American dollars globally, the strong dollar coupled with an already struggling European economy is preventing businesses overseas from receiving the same boost. Moreover, as the European economies continue to wane, their demand for oil will fall – sending prices even lower.Unlike Saudi Arabia who has a sizable reserve to fall back on to endure a longer stint of low prices, an extended period of low prices threatens the nations of Venezuela, Iraq and Russia who rely on a price of oil in excess of $100 a barrel in order to remain solvent. With Saudi Arabia’s known willingness to endure the low prices rather than cut production coupled with their command of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), it is unlikely that production will be reined in to the satisfaction of the other members.There has been a brief resurgence in the price of oil in the last week, however there remains much to be bearish of. The underlying factors that have driven the decline to begin with remain unchanged. Iraq and Venezuela do not have the clout within OPEC to override Saudi Arabia and there has been no noteworthy fall in American production. Until the price plummets further, production will continue at current capacity. The ramifications of a continued slide could be dire for the global economy. Until balance between the surging supply and existing demand is reached, foreign economies can be expected to continue struggling.Sources:http://online.wsj.com/articles/crude-prices-continue-slide-1413455016http://online.wsj.com/articles/global-oil-glut-sends-prices-plunging-1413334648?KEYWORDS=oilhttp://www.npr.org/2014/10/16/356588383/strong-u-s-dollar-pushes-oil-prices-lowerhttp://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/falling-oil-prices-shake-global-economies-26232272?page=2