By Evan Gao '16

On November 15th, China’s Communist Party announced that it would significantly loosen its “one child policy” that was implemented over three decades ago in order to alleviate social, economic, and environmental issues, which stemmed from its incredibly large population. A misnomer, the one-child policy is officially known as the family planning policy because it allowed many exceptions. For instance, rural families may raise a second child if the first child is a girl or disabled. Families where both parents are the only children may also have a second child. Since its inception, the one child policy has controlled population growth by bringing the birthrate in China from 33.4 per thousand in the '70s to 15.6 in the late ‘90s. However, the policy has also resulted in many economic issues, including a shrinking workforce and a skewed sex ratio at birth. In future years there will also be a greater burden on the younger generations to take care of older generations. With a current fertility rate of 1.5 reported by the National Bureau of Statistics, it is projected that in 20 years, for every elderly person receiving benefits, there will only be two taxpaying workers, down from the current number of 5.

Soon, however, a couple in China will be allowed to have two children if either parent is an only child, which is likely to be true for many young couples because of the policy. While not expected to have an immediate impact on China’s population in the short-term, many analysts, including Wang Feng from the University of California, estimate that the change will result in an increase in one to two million births per year. Zhai Zenwu of Renmin University predicts that the change will allow 20 million people to have a second child and about half of those people will be interested in doing so.

A change in China’s one-child policy is certainly a step in the right direction in terms of mitigating its economic issues, but unfortunately, it will be inadequate. For one thing, the new policy will be slow in implementation as it will be introduced in phases, starting with provinces such as those in the Eastern part of China that have a relatively low birth rate. Furthermore, some areas might not even agree to enforce the change at all since the implementation will be determined by provincial governments.

But let us assume that in a few years that the change will be fully implemented throughout the nation. It is still unlikely that there will be a meaningful increase in the number of births. What Zhai Zenwu and other demographers are omitting is the fact that parents who really want a second child have already done so. The upper class members can easily pay the fines that the government imposes on those that choose not to follow the one-child policy. Others can hide additional offspring from officials or go abroad to have children.

Population boosting policies can have many positive effects on the economy both domestically and worldwide. More children lead to a higher consumption of dairy products as well as meat consumption as they grow. Thus, countries such as the U.S., which ranks China as its third-largest export market, would benefit greatly from a population boost. Domestically, China’s workforce would grow, resulting in an increase in productivity and a spike in economic growth. However, population-boosting policies rarely work because they take years and possibly decades to produce a noticeable effect. Chinese officials should have made a change a long time ago. The delayed results of changing the policy are causing many to think it should be abolished altogether.

Sources:http://www.nytimes.com/2013/11/20/opinion/chinas-one-child-rule-should-be-scrapped.html?_r=0http://www.ibtimes.com/us-exports-china-have-grown-294-over-past-decade-1338693http://www.npr.org/2013/11/19/246154509/china-eases-one-child-policy-whats-nexthttp://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/china-should-abolish-its-one-child-policy-altogether/2013/11/20/f52d203c-51f4-11e3-9e2c-e1d01116fd98_story.html